000 AXNT20 KNHC 022332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N20W to 05N35W to 07N44W, and resumes W of a surface trough near 07N47W to 07N60W. The surface trough extends from 11N43W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 44W and 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 28N90W to 26N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. Moderate NE winds are N of the front. Moderate SW winds are S of the front. A surface trough is over the SW gulf with an axis extending from 24N95W to 19N93W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds are W of the trough axis. Mainly moderate easterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin this evening. Over the next 24 hours the stationary front will weaken. Return SE flow will then dominate the basin Sunday night through Tuesday, before a cold front reaches the NW Gulf coast Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface high pressure centered NW of the region supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the western Caribbean this evening, with the strongest winds over the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman Islands, and also along the coast of NE Colombia. A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis extending from 19N63W to 12N69W. Scattered thunderstorms are from 12N to 19N between 61W and 69W. Otherwise, the Caribbean basin is nearly void of thunderstorm activity. Light winds are within 90 nm of the trough axis, while moderate easterly trades cover the remainder of the eastern Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase slightly over the western Caribbean Sunday night as the high to the NW shifts eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island as a cold front passes just north of the area. Showers embedded in NE winds will persist over the northern portion of the island through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N58W and extends to 26N62W to 21N69W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within about 500 nm NW of the front. A complex low pressure system with a pair of low centers is just east of this front over the central Atlantic. The westernmost low of 1009 mb is centered near 29N56W. A surface trough extends from the low SW to near 21N66W. The easternmost low of 1011 mb is centered near 30N46W. A weakening stationary front extends between these two lows. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N between 41W and 57W, primarily confined between the two low centers. Fresh easterly winds are N of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the front. A 1020 mb high centered near 27N28W dominates the Atlantic basin east of the central Atlantic lows. Over the next 24 hours the lows will move NE and north of 31N. The cold front will continue to move eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto