000 AXNT20 KNHC 021623 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1123 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 10N15W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to 05N30W to 08N42W. A surface trough extends from 05N44W to 11N40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 32W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry and stable conditions aloft as broad middle to upper level ridging influences much of the basin this afternoon. At the surface...a 1020 mb low is centered across southern Georgia with a weak stationary front extending SW across the Florida panhandle to the coast near 30N85W then to 27N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the front. Elsewhere...a pair of surface troughs are analyzed across the SW Gulf waters providing focus for isolated showers possible S of 25N W of 91W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate easterly wind S of the front and light and variable winds in the vicinity of the front and across the western Gulf in the vicinity of the surface trough boundaries. S-SE return flow is expected to re-establish itself on Monday across much of the basin with the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Tuesday into Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge axis extends from over the SW Caribbean near 10N78W NW to over the Yucatan peninsula. NW flow prevails east of the ridge axis over much of the remainder of the basin providing overall dry and stable conditions aloft. One surface feature of note is a surface trough extending from near Bonaire NE to near Saint Croix. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 13N-17N between 63W-67W. Elsewhere across the basin outside of the influence of the surface trough...moderate to fresh NE winds prevail and are expected to persist through Sunday night. This wind field is expected to gradually strengthen through Monday night with fresh to strong trades forecast across a large portion of the basin between 64W-82W for much of next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across the island as dry NW flow aloft remains in place over the area. Little change is expected through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted over the western North Atlc with axis along 64W that supports a 1011 mb low centered near 36N59W and the associated cold front extending from the low to 29N65W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front. To the south...a broad area of lower pressure is analyzed between 44W-67W focused on a 1010 mb low centered near 26N62W. A surface trough trails SW to near the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W. Isolated showers are occurring generally within 180 nm N of the trough axis within an area of moderate to fresh N-NE winds. East of the low...a stationary front extends from the low to 28N56W and meanders into a weaker 1012 mb low centered near 29N48W. Between the lows in the vicinity of the frontal boundary...scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 22N-32N between 43W-60W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to a middle to upper level shortwave noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 26N56W and will continue moving E-NE and eventually N of the discussion area by Sunday night. Farther east...A broad complex upper level low is centered near 42N37W supporting a cold front extending from across the Azores to 32N34W to 31N41W becoming stationary to 32N51W. Isolated showers are possible N of 28N between 30W-43W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN