000 AXNT20 KNHC 020547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 04N-07N between 25W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The overall mid to upper-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico is anticyclonic with generally westerly winds noted. Moderate to strong subsidence prevails over the entire basin which led to generally fair conditions overall. A frontal boundary has weakened to a surface trough, that extends from 29N83W to 25N95W. No convection is associated to this trough at this time. To the southwest, another surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula with showers. Scatterometer data indicated generally light to moderate northeast winds over most of the basin, with winds becoming fresh near the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Light to moderate northwest winds were noted west of the surface trough over the northern half of the basin and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico. The remnants of the frontal boundary are forecast to lift slowly northward through Sat as southeast return flow resumes over the basin west of 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid to upper-level flow over the Caribbean is anticyclonic in nature, west of 80W with generally westerly winds noted over the entire basin. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over most of the basin with the strongest subsidence noted over Cuba. This resulted in generally fair conditions overall. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection as noted over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict generally light to moderate easterly winds across the basin with fresh to locally strong winds within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Mid to upper-level westerly winds with increasingly strong subsidence was noted over the island. With this, fair weather prevails across the area. Little change in conditions is expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic along 70W. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is centered near 26N65W, with stationary front extending from the low to a 1014 low near 27N52W. The front continues from the second low to 24N40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 20N between 60W-70W. To the east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N22W to 28N25W with scattered moderate convection. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 25N23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA