000 AXNT20 KNHC 020003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 07N30W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 08N to 11N between 32W and 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... The overall middle to upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico is anticyclonic in nature with generally W to NW winds noted. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over the entire basin which led to generally fair conditions overall. A patch of broken to overcast low clouds was noted from 26.5N to the extreme SE coast of Louisiana between 89W and 93W. This cloudiness was associated with a weakening stationary front which at 2100 UTC extended from near Apalachicola, Florida to 28N90W to 25N95W then curved southward to 19N94W. Earlier 1458 and 1638 UTC ASCAT scatterometer passes indicated generally light to moderate NE winds over most of the Gulf with winds becoming fresh near the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Light to moderate NW winds were noted west of the stationary front and within 90-120 NM of the coast of Mexico. A surface trough extended from 25N93W to the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula near Campeche. The remnants of the stationary front are forecast to lift slowly northward through Sat as SE return flow resumes over the basin W of 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The overall middle to upper level flow over the Caribbean is anticyclonic in nature, west of 80W with generally W to NW winds noted over the entire basin. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over most of the basin with the strongest subsidence noted over Cuba. This resulted in generally fair conditions overall with the exception of broken to overcast multi-layered cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean in association with a surface trough which extended from 16N65W to the ABC islands and the N coast of Venezuela. Additional overcast low cloudiness was noted over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua in part due to orographic lift as moderate to fresh NE winds impact the region. Afternoon scatterometer passes and surface observations indicated generally light to moderate NE winds across the basin with fresh to locally strong winds within 60 NM of the coast of Colombia. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection as noted over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle to upper level NW winds with increasingly strong subsidence was noted over the island. Patches of broken to overcast cloudiness with an isolated shower was noted over the interior of the Dominican Republic. The 1200 UTC Santo Domingo rawinsonde showed extensive dry air throughout the profile with precipitable water values of around 1.6 inches. Overall little change in conditions is expected through the weekend. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough extends through 32N62W to 25N64W and 19N64W with an upstream trough sweeping in from the NW off the SE U.S. coast. At the surface a stationary front extends from 24N52W to a 1009 mb low pressure center near 25N67W. A surface trough continues from the 1009 mb low pressure center, to 22N68W to the coastal border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 23N to 28N between 51W and 58W. An upper level trough passes through 32N27W to 24N33W to 18N40W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N22W 24N30W to 23N47W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb