000 AXNT20 KNHC 011804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W to 08N20W 07N30W 04N38W, and 03N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 21W and 24W, within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ, between 26W and 40W. isolated moderate also from 10N southward between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is confined to the SW corner of the area. It is related to the Colombia-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge. Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire area. A stationary front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 31N85W, along the Georgia/Florida border, to 28N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 24N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the stationary front from 90W westward, and to the NW of the stationary front from 90W eastward. A surface trough is along 25N92W to the NW corner of the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N southward between 88W and the Mexico coast. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KVQT. MVFR: KGRY, KSPR, and KDLP. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOUISIANA: MVFR/haze in parts of the SE sections. IFR and light rain/drizzle in parts of the SE part of the state. A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle into the N central Gulf of Mexico. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the SE parts of the state. ALABAMA: MVFR in the S sections. FLORIDA: MVFR in the Florida Big Bend. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula. An inverted trough is in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea from 400 mb to 800 mb, underneath the upper level anticyclonic wind flow. A surface trough extends from the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N90W, to 17N87W, to the NE coast of Honduras, to 14N83W, along the NE coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the west of the line that runs from SW Haiti near 18N74W to 16N80W and 11N83W. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong remains from 11N southward from 75W westward to Central America. A surface trough is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, along 63W/64W from 17N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N southward between 60W and 68W. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.23 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and at the observation sites in the Dominican Republic. few cumulonimbus clouds in Barahona, in the Dominican Republic. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend from NW Colombia, along Central America, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, W-to-NW, will be on top of Hispaniola for the next two days, with a broad trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with Hispaniola being in a col point, one ridge to the east, and a separate ridge to the west. Cyclonic wind flow with a trough will cover the area for the rest of day one. Day one will end with a trough in the middle of Hispaniola, and ridges on either side of the trough. Day two will consist of more of the same pattern: ridge/trough/ridge. Day two will end with the ridge that is to the east of Hispaniola dominating and covering the island. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N60W to 25N64W and 19N64W. A stationary front extends from 25N62W to 26N64W, and to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 25N68W. A surface trough continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to 22N68W and 20N72W near the coastal border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 27N between 59W and 66W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 19N to 30N between 50W and 56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 18N northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 27N32W, 21N36W, and 17N40W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N23W 25N29W 23N39W. A stationary front passes through Morocco near 29N10W to 31N16W. A warm front continues from 31N16W beyond 32N17W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 25N northward between 22W and 28W, and from 29N northward between 29W and 31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT