000 AXNT20 KNHC 302304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 07N32W to 04N42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 27W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/2100 UTC...a cold front extends from southern Mississippi near 31N89W SW to 27N93W then curving westward to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. Isolated showers are within 45 nm either side of the front remaining generally N of 27N. A surface trough extends SE from the front near 28N92W to near the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 22N88W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise... relatively dry and stable conditions prevail aloft as a middle to upper level ridge remains anchored over much of Mexico and the western Gulf this evening. Precipitation with the front and troughing is expected to remain shallow with generally gentle to moderate E-NE winds E of the surface trough and gentle to moderate N-NE winds W of the surface trough. The cold front will be slow to move through Friday night and become nearly stationary across the NW Gulf Friday as the surface trough drifts westward and weakens. Thereafter...the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS will provide gentle to moderate E-SE winds through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the basin this evening on the northern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation anchored over eastern Panama near 07N78W. Generally dry air aloft and overall stable conditions are noted across the central and NE Caribbean this evening. A surface trough extends from 21N86W to 17N85W to 12N83W and intersects the monsoon trough axis analyzed along 10N/11N. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 11N between 75W-85W. Isolated showers are elsewhere across the NW Caribbean waters W of the surface trough axis...pushing into interior portions of Central America. Farther east...the only other area of note is a surface trough analyzed across the SE Caribbean from 10N64W to 15N61W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 10N-15N between 56W-64W... continuing to impact the Windward Island this evening. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades will persist E of 80W through Saturday...with slightly stronger NE winds anticipated across the NW Caribbean beginning Friday as high pressure builds southward across the Florida peninsula and SW North Atlc region. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the island this evening as the influence of dry NW flow aloft remains in place over the region. A couple isolated showers and tstms are occurring across far eastern portions of the island...but will likely dissipate through the evening hours. Little change is expected through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted over the SW North Atlc in the vicinity of 26N67W that supports a 1012 mb low centered near 26N68W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N73W and a stationary front extends eastward from the low to 26N57W. A broad area of scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring from 22N-31N between 56W-68W...with most activity focused on either side of the stationary front. The low is forecast to move E-NE through Saturday into the central Atlc and deepen N of the discussion area between 35W-55W on Sunday. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc to the W is under relatively quiet conditions with the exception of a surface trough extending off the coast of the Carolinas near 35N74W SW into the waters off the coast of Florida near 29N80W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 28N between 75W-80W. Farther east...a middle to upper level low is centered over the central North Atlc near 37N35W that supports a 994 mb low nearly collocated with the upper level feature. The associated cold front enters the discussion area near 32N30W then SW to 25N40W to 26N49W. To the east...a surface ridge influences much of the eastern Atlc anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 24N20W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN