000 AXNT20 KNHC 301801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N26W, and 07N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N southward between 20W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving through the SE and central sections of the area. Upper level W wind flow is present in this same area. A surface trough extends from 26N92W to 24N89W, beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N southward between 84W and 94W, and along the Mexico coast from 20N to 25N. A surface trough passes through S central coastal Louisiana, to 25N96W, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N northward to the coast between 90W and 94W. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KVQT. MVFR: KEHC. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR and light rain/drizzle in parts of the SE part of the state. This is happening to the east of the surface trough that extends into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. MISSISSIPPI: IFR/MVFR in S parts of the state, to the east of the surface trough. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula. An inverted trough covers the Caribbean Sea from 400 mb to 800 mb, underneath the upper level anticyclonic wind flow. A surface trough extends from the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N87W, to 18N86W and 14N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the Yucatan Channel. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 17N between 83W and 87W off the coast of Honduras. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N northward from 80W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along 10N74W 11N76W beyond the Costa Rica/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from the Monsoon Trough to 11N between 78W and 80W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 11N southward from 76W westward. A surface trough is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, 15N60W 12N62W 10N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 14N between 60W and 64W. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and at the observation sites in the Dominican Republic. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend from NW Colombia, along Central America, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, W-to-NW, will be on top of Hispaniola for the next two days, with a broad trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with an inverted trough moving across the W parts of Hispaniola. The rest of the 48-hour forecast period will consist of Hispaniola being nearly in a col point, in the middle of anticyclonic wind flow to the east of it, and anticyclonic wind flow to the west of it. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N68W to 26N69W to 24N70W to SE Cuba. A stationary front extends from 27N64W to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N69W. A surface trough continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 26N between 63W and 68W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 17N northward between 54W and 80W. An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 24N40W, 13N47W, and 07N57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 10N to 14N between 52W and 60W. The trough is supporting a cold front that curves through 32N32W to 28N35W 25N45W and 28N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 29N northward between 22W and 31W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 22N northward between 20W and 50W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N22W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 16N northward from 30W eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT