000 AXNT20 KNHC 301034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 534 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N18W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad mid to upper-level ridge is over much of the Gulf basin with a mid to upper-level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the Ohio River valley. A 1018 mb low is centered across northern Arkansas with the associated cold front extending southward to Louisiana and the northwest Gulf waters along 94W and north of 28N. The front continues to weaken as the mid-level energy progresses eastward. A surface trough extends from the cold front near 28N93W to 25N91W. Shallow low-level moisture in the vicinity of the trough is supporting isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Moderate east winds prevail east of the surface trough and generally gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail west of the trough. Another trough extends across the Yucatan Channel and continues over the west Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm north of this trough. The trough and front over the northwest waters are forecast to dissipate by early Sunday with ridging anchored across the eastern CONUS influencing the basin with gentle to moderate easterly winds. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the basin on the northern periphery of an upper-level anticyclonic circulation anchored in the East Pacific waters south of Panama near 05N84W. Generally dry air aloft and overall stable conditions are noted across the central and eastern Caribbean, with most atmospheric moisture centered around Panama. The convection present in this area is due to the presence of the monsoon trough along 10N and enhanced due to favorable upper-level divergence. A surface trough extends from the northern Yucatan Channel to 15N83W with isolated showers. Farther east, the only other area of note is a surface trough analyzed east of the Windward Islands from 14N59W to 12N62W. Scattered showers are occurring within 150 nm either side of the boundary. Moderate to fresh trades will persist east of 80W today, with slightly strong winds anticipated within 120 nm of the Colombia coast through the overnight hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the island as the influence of dry westerly flow aloft remains in place over the region. Little change is expected through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is noted over the west Atlantic that supports a 1014 mb surface low centered near 25N71W. A stationary front extends from the low to 28N65W, while a surface trough extends from the low to 22N73W. Low-level moisture convergence along with mid to upper-level divergence east of these features are supporting scattered moderate convection occurring north of 24N between 62W-68W. The low is expected to move northeast into the central Atlantic waters during the next 24 hours. Farther east, a vigorous mid to upper-level low is centered over the central Atlantic supports a storm-force 986 mb low nearly centered north of the discussion area near 38N39W. The associated cold front enters the discussion area near 31N34W to 27N41W, then becomes weak from that point to 28N54W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the front. To the southeast, a surface trough extends from 25N33W to 21N46W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of rather benign and tranquil conditions south of 25N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA