000 AXNT20 KNHC 291804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 08N27W, 05N35W, 04N40W, and 02N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 12W and 53W. An upper level trough passes through 32N20W to 24N20W and 13N35W, narrowing toward 10N49W. High level clouds are to the SE of the line that passes through 21N17W 12N30W 08N35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to South Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to 23N93W, and 23N97W. A surface trough is along 30N93W, at the SW coast of Louisiana, to 26N92W, to the N central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N89W. A shear axis runs from the Atlantic Ocean near 27N66W, to 26N73W, across Andros Island, to 24N80W, to 25N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 210 nm on either side of 30N93W 24N90W 20N90W, and in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 23N to 25N between 80W and 86W, including in the Straits of Florida. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Cyclonic wind flow also covers the Caribbean Sea from 400 mb to 800 mb, underneath the upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the area. It is spilling over, from the cyclonic wind flow that is in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 16N83W and 11N81W. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N from Colombia near 75W beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N southward between 79W and the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Isolated moderate from 13N northward from 76W westward. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving across the area, with broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and at the observation sites in the Dominican Republic. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend from NW Colombia, along Central America, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will be on top of Hispaniola for the first 12 to 18 hours or so of the overall 48-hour forecast period. Expect westerly wind flow during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge, during the first 12 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast period. An inverted trough will form and move across the area, during the rest of day one. Day two will find Hispaniola in nearly a col point, in the middle of anticyclonic wind flow to the east of it, and anticyclonic wind flow to the west of it. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 54W and the 32N77W-to-South Florida upper level trough. A surface trough is along 69W/70W, from the Dominican Republic to 25N. A shear axis runs from the Atlantic Ocean near 27N66W, to 26N73W, across Andros Island, to 24N80W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 24N to 27N between 68W and 71W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 60W and 80W. A central Atlantic Ocean middle level to upper level trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N42W to 29N48W to 29N55W. A surface trough also is along 31N31W 28N32W 26N36W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N northward between 30W and 46W. A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 06N to 13N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within 60 nm on either side of 11N54W 10N58W 08N60W. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 23N31W, to a 1019 mb high pressure center that is near 25N52W, to 24N62W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt