000 AXNT20 KNHC 282334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N21W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-15N between 20W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad mid to upper-level trough is over much of the basin. A surface trough extends from 25N92W to 21N90W. Another trough extends southeast from the Yucatan Channel into the west Caribbean. Isolated showers are occurring south of 26N and west of 90W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data across the eastern half of the basin, while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Expect for the troughs to drift west merging with the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on late Wednesday into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and central Caribbean between a mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper-level anticyclonic circulation prevails over the eastern Caribbean. Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward from 83W across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and east of a surface trough that extends from the Yucatan Channel to 16N82W to a 1008 mb surface low near 10N80W. Moderate to fresh trades will persist east of 85W through Wednesday while moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are expected generally west of 80W. As high pressure moves off the eastern CONUS, trades across the south-central Caribbean will increase briefly into fresh to strong levels on Wednesday and weaken again on Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the island as the influence of mid to upper-level ridging remains in place over the region. Increasing cloudiness is expected through tonight into Wednesday as the ridge slides eastward and southwesterly flow aloft begins to influence the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low and associated troughing are noted on water vapor imagery over the western Atlantic supporting a weak surface trough from 30N50W to 27N63W. A shearline extends from the trough to 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along these boundaries mainly north of 25N. To the east, another surface trough extends from 30N34W to 26N40W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 24N46W and a 1019 mb high near 25N21W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the troughs to weaken while the high pressures will merge along 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA