000 AXNT20 KNHC 281044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 544 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N17W to 04N40W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 12W and 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad mid to upper-level trough extends from the SE CONUS into the Gulf, covering much of the basin and supporting a surface trough from 25N89W SE across the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W to the NW Caribbean basin. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep layer dry air across most of the Gulf while CIRA LPW show only shallow moisture in the SE Gulf, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms within 210 nm E of the surface trough axis and isolated showers within 60 nm W of it. Otherwise, a surface ridge along the E CONUS extends across the remainder basis, thus providing moderate to fresh E winds in the SE Gulf and light to gentle NNE winds elsewhere. The trough will drift westward and eventually merge with the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... GOES-16 water vapor imagery show dry stable conditions in the far western and eastern Caribbean. However, in the central Caribbean deep layer moisture underneath upper level diffluent flow support scattered scattered showers between 75W and 82W or the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 20N80W to 09N81W. Strong high pressure N of the western Caribbean support moderate to fresh NNW winds W of the surface trough and along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate trades are elsewhere. The surface trough will slowly drift west through Thursday with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions will prevail across the island through Wednesday night as the influence of mid to upper-level ridging remains in place over the region. Showers are forecast Thursday morning for the Dominican Republic as a surface trough, currently N of Puerto Rico, moves across the Island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is across the SW N Atlc waters from 31N56W to 26N70W to Andros Island supporting scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and within 150 nm either side of the trough axis. Another surface trough is N of Puerto Rico extending from 22N64W to 18N65W supporting isolated showers S of 22N between 60W and 68W. Surface high pressure dominates the remainder central and eastern Atlc anchored by a pair of 1020 mb highs forecast to stall during the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos