000 AXNT20 KNHC 271701 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1201 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N20W to 06N33W to 07N43W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 11W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 14N between 21W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is over much of the Gulf basin this afternoon with a shortwave trough noted in the vicinity of 24N86W and another with axis extending from over Georgia near 32N83W to 28N91W. The southern-most shortwave supports a 1014 mb low centered near 23N87W with a surface trough extending NW to 26N90W and SE across the Yucatan Channel region and into the western Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 23N-26N between 82W-89W generally N of the low. Elsewhere... isolated showers are occurring S of 24N W of 95W in association with a surface trough paralleling the coast of Mexico. Otherwise...mostly gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted E of 90W and gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted W of 90W as surface ridging remains anchored across the SE CONUS and NW Gulf waters. The low is expected to weaken through Wednesday with the remnant trough drifting westward and eventually merging with the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Wednesday late morning into the afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and central Caribbean between a middle to upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper level anticyclonic circulation anchored over the eastern Caribbean. Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward from 83W across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and Cuba this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring generally along and E of a surface trough extending from the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W SE to 17N82W into a 1007 mb low embedded within the monsoon trough axis near 10N79W. A cluster of stronger tstms is occurring in close proximity to the low S of 12N between 76W-80W. Farther east...a fast moving surface trough is analyzed NE of the Leeward Islands from 17N60W to 20N61W. Isolated showers are possible N of 17N E of 66W this afternoon and evening. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades will persist E of 80W through Wednesday while moderate to fresh N-NW winds are expected generally W of 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the island this afternoon as the influence of middle to upper level ridging remains in place over the region. Drier conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc and extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N59W. The front continues SW to 29N70W and becomes stationary across the central Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of 27N between 50W-68W...and from 21N-30N between 68W- 80W. The front is expected to gradually weaken through Tuesday as surface ridging slides off the Mid-Atlc and SE CONUS coastline. Across the central Atlc...a remnant front continues to dissipate as a surface trough now extends from 29N42W to 26N52W. Dissipation is expected within the next 24 hours as two high pressure areas merge in the vicinity of 25N49W through Tuesday. Lastly...a 1010 mb low is centered SE of the Azores near 37N25W with the dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N21W. The front extends SW to 27N31W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN