000 AXNT20 KNHC 252314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N18W to 08N30W to the South American coast near 05N52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over SE Louisiana near 30N90W. A surface ridge axis extends S to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 29N85W to 23N85W. Broken low clouds are over the E Gulf E of 89W. Mostly fair weather is over the W Gulf. 10-15 kt variable winds are noted over the Gulf. In the upper levels, a large trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf except over the NE Gulf and N Florida where upper level cloudiness is seen. Expect scattered showers to form over the SE Gulf along the southern portion of the E Gulf trough over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is over central Cuba and the NW Caribbean from 22N78W to 19N82W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm E of front. A surface trough is over the SW Caribbean from 18N80W to N Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of this trough. In addition, the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends over Costa rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Caribbean enhancing showers. A small upper level high is centered over the Virgin Islands near 18N64W with strong subsidence E of 68W. Expect showers and convection to persist over the Caribbean between 75W-85W for the next 24 hours. Also expect the front to dissipate over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers continue over the island, as moist southwest flow aloft prevails over the region. Little change is expected over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N70W to the central Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front to include the S Bahamas. A prefrontal trough extends from 28N67W to 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of trough. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N49W to 27N54W. A stationary front continues to 25N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A cold front over the E Atlantic extends from 31N17W through the Canary Islands to 26N17W to 19N24W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands and within 60 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the W Atlantic W of 70W supporting the cold front. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N25W. Upper level diffluence is SW of the center enhancing showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa