000 AXNT20 KNHC 230540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N87W with a cold front extending SW from the low to southern Mexico near 18N92W. Near gale to gale force N-NW winds are occurring across the western Gulf waters S of 20N W of 95W and are expected to persist through early Thursday morning. Thereafter winds will diminish slightly and remain generally fresh to strong across the basin west of the cold front through Thursday night as the low moves NE into the SW North Atlc region. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A 1008 mb low is centered near 30N67W with the associated cold front extending SW to the SE Bahamas near 22N75W. The existing pressure gradient remains strong within the NE and E quadrants of the low generating near gale to gale force S-SE winds within 150 nm of the center within the eastern quadrant. These conditions will persist through the overnight hours diminishing across the discussion area by Thursday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N19W to 06N26W to 06N33W to 04N40W to 07N52W to 06N57W. A surface trough is analyzed N of the ITCZ from 08N51W to 14N47W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-05N between the Prime Meridian and 02W...and from 03N-10N between 10W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-15N between 23W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An amplified middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the basin with axis extending from over southern Alabama near 32N88W to a base over southern Mexico near 17N99W. This troughing supports the Special Features low analyzed across the eastern Gulf and resulting near gale to gale force winds noted west of the front. The low will be swift to move NE and into the SW North Atlc region by Thursday night as the front continues across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters clearing east of the basin by Saturday. Until then...northerly winds are expected as high pressure will influence much of the basin through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends along 81W across the western Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring N of 13N between 72W-84W. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 13N between 73W-85W in close proximity to the monsoon trough analyzed along 10N/11N. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate trades are occurring E of 80W. Little change is expected through Sunday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Increased cloudiness and isolated showers are possible across western portions of the island through the overnight hours as more active convection lies across the Windward Passage region and adjacent coastal waters W of 72W in association with a favorable divergent environment within southwesterly flow aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N71W and becomes stationary to 30N76W then to the Florida peninsula near 29N81W and into the Special Features 1012 mb low centered across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the front remains relatively benign...the SW North Atlc 1008 mb Special Feature low centered near 30N67W is supported aloft by a mid-level shortwave in the vicinity of 26N66W and continues to generate scattered showers and tstms N of 23N between 58W-67W. Farther east...a weakening cold front slices across northern portions of the discussion area from 32N28W W-SW to 29N40W to 27N53W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front. Lastly...a weak 1012 mb low is centered near 20N43W with a surface trough analyzed NE from the low to 24N32W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm N of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN