000 AXNT20 KNHC 222349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N87W with a cold front extending from the low to 23N94W to 19N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the low to near 18N91W. Another frontal boundary extends from the low to 31N85W. Frequent gusts to gale-force have been occurring this morning over the northwest Gulf mainly north of the front, while sustained gale-force winds prevail over the southwest Gulf. The gusts over the northwest Gulf will diminish below gale force by tonight. The winds over the southwestern waters will weaken by Friday morning. This system is expected to move northeast through the next 24 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A new area of low pressure of 1010 mb has developed near 28N70W. Gale force winds are forecast to develop this evening over the southeast semicircle of the low. These conditions will continue overnight diminishing by Thursday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to 07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N20W to 07N46W. A surface trough is just west of the ITCZ from 13N47W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between 19W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A complex system is dominating the Gulf basin today. This system is supporting gale-force winds across the western half of the basin in 2 areas: south of 29N with frequent gusts to gale-force, and over the Bay of Campeche with sustained gale-force winds. Please refer to the section above for more details about these features. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the surface low, affecting the area north of 25N and east of 90W. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere aside from the gale areas. During the next 24 hours, the low will move northeast enhancing convection/seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends along 81W over the west Caribbean with scattered moderate convection between 75W-83W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean west of 78W, while moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the Caribbean east of 78W. These conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Clear skies and relatively tranquil conditions are noted across the island today. Scattered thunderstorms may begin to affect the south portion of the island later today as an upper-level trough to the west digs southeast toward the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 28N70W. This feature will intensify supporting gale-force winds this evening. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the previously mentioned low mainly north of 24N between 62W-78W. To the east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from 31N37W to 28N53W then as a dissipating stationary front from that point to 30N62W. No significant convection is related to these fronts at this time. A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 20N43W, with a surface trough extending northeast from the low to 24N29W and another one extending southwest from the low to 17N51W. No deep convection is noted with these features at this time. Over the next 24 hours, the low over the western Atlantic will exit the area of discussion with a trailing front over the west Atlantic waters. The cold front over the central Atlantic will continue eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA