000 AXNT20 KNHC 190544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. Gale force northerly winds are W of 90W and N of front, with seas to 8 ft. The cold front will move across the remainder of the Gulf through Monday. Gale force winds are forecast to persist for the next 36 hours over portions of the Gulf. See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N22W to 06N45W to the South American coast near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 17W-21W, and from 04N-07N between 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front and gale are over the NW Gulf of Mexico. See above. Radar imagery shows scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front over Louisiana, and mostly void of precipitation over the Gulf of Mexico. 5-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front. Mostly fair weather is S of the front. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from central Florida to the SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will then be S of 21N W of front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb low is centered near the N tip of Colombia at 13N71W. A surface trough extends N from the low to Hispaniola at 18N71W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-15N between 69W-71W, to include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 360 nm E of the trough axis, to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is enhancing the showers and convection over the central Caribbean Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift E and persist for the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola, and will continue through Monday. Expect convection to be heaviest over E Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding is also possible during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N66W producing fair weather. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 27N50W, to an embedded 1009 mb low near 25N54W, to 22N61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N26W also producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic enhancing the central Atlantic with upper level diffluence. Another upper level trough is over the far E Atlantic and Morocco. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa