000 AXNT20 KNHC 180003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N21W to 07N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 06N38W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N E of 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Stable conditions prevail basin-wide being supported by deep layered dry air and a broad surface ridge anchored near West Virginia that extends SSW into the Gulf. This ridge provides NE to E light to moderate flow E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same magnitude W of 90W. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Saturday night followed by strong to near-gale N-NE winds. Scattered to isolated showers are expected in the vicinity of the front as it moves southeastward through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of lows prevail in the central Caribbean underneath a broad upper level ridge covering the eastern half of the basin. The northern low is 1008 mb and is located over S Haiti adjacent waters near 17N73W. The second low is 1009 mb and is off the coast of Colombia near 12N75W. Upper level diffluence between an upper trough over the western basin and the ridge to the east supports scattered showers and tstms N of 15N between 67W and 73W and S of 13N between 71W and 79W. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh northerly winds are noted across the western Caribbean waters generally W of 78W while ESE light to moderate wind flow is E of the the area of low pressure. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary S of Hispaniola and gradually dissipate by Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and tstms are across the eastern half of the island while isolated showers are elsewhere. This activity is being supported by an elongated area of low pressure in the Central Caribbean extending beyond Hispaniola into the SW N Atlc waters. Upper level diffluence supports this convection as well. Similar shower activity will continue during the weekend into Monday as the area of low pressure S of the island will stall before dissipating early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively dry middle to upper level trough that supports a cold front N of the area with tail dissipating along 30N66W to 27N72W. A middle level trough and upper level diffluence supports scattered showers and tstms N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico to 24N. North-northeast of that area of convection, a stationary front extends from 30N40W to 27N50W to a 1009 mb low near 25N61W. Scattered showers are N of the low between 50W and 65W. Surface ridging is elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlc being anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos