000 AXNT20 KNHC 161756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1000 mb low is centered 33N51W with the associated cold front extending SW from the low to 27N63W. The low is supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis extending from 38N53W to 31N57W. Near gale to gale force S-SW winds are expected for the next 18 hours generally N of 28N between the front and 48W. An early morning scatterometer pass indicated this wind field which extends north of the area to 34N/35N. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 08N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N28W to 08N38W to 06N50W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between the Prime Meridian and 17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 17W- 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward over the far eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula. Mostly stable conditions are noted at the surface as a ridge axis extends from across the SE CONUS to the SW Gulf and east-central Mexico near 22N97W. Skies are mostly clear with the exception of a few possible isolated showers within 90 nm either side of a surface trough analyzed from 19N92W to 23N97W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are forecast through Friday. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Saturday into Saturday night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will follow in wake of the front as it sweeps southeastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of lower pressure across the basin continues to be focused on a 1008 mb low centered SW of Hispaniola near 17N75W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to near 10N81W supporting scattered showers and strong tstms from 09N-16N between 70W- 83W...and from 16N-21N between 59W-74W. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh northerly winds are noted across the western Caribbean waters generally W of 77W...while trade wind flow E of the surface troughing will continue to be disrupted outside of convection...gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary S-SW of Hispaniola early Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep moisture advects NE over the region due to an upper trough to the NW over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Convection will likely be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the special features section above highlighting the area of low pressure analyzed near 33N51W...the SW North Atlc is under the influence of moderate to occasional fresh N-NE winds with a dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N75W to the Florida coast near 27N80W. Isolated showers are occurring across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits...and along the Florida east coast S of 29N. Farther east...a surface trough extends SW from the Special Features cold front near 31N54W to 23N70W and into the 1008 mb low centered in the Caribbean Sea near 17N75W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring from 18N-26N between 58W-73W...and from 26N-32N between 40W-58W. The frontal troughing is expected to persist across the central Atlc through Saturday night as ridging builds in off the SE CONUS and into the SW North Atlc. Finally...mostly tranquil conditions are noted across the eastern Atlc...however a surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 37N24W and is supporting widely scattered showers N of 27N between 18W-23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN