000 AXNT20 KNHC 152351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A complex and elongated area of low pressure over the western Atlantic will organize into an extratropical storm system as it moves northeast to the central Atlantic over the next 24 hours. The main low of 1006 mb is centered near 29N60W, with a stationary front extending SW to a trailing low center of 1007 mb centered near 25N68W. A surface trough extends SW of the southern low to eastern Cuba. Numerous showers and embedded scattered thunderstorms are within 500 nm east of the lows and fronts. The stationary front will transition to a cold front between the northern main low and the southern low this evening. Gale force winds will develop over our area of discussion this evening N of 29N and east of the cold front and main low. These gale force winds will propagate east ahead of the front over the discussion waters through Thursday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N22W to 08N35W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 30W and 38W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 17W and 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from the southeastern United States to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf. A surface trough extends from 24N97W to 20N92W supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between 89W and 94W. Very little change is expected over the next 48 hours. A strong cold front will cross the Gulf beginning Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N76W, with a surface trough extending from the low SW to near 10N81W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 69W and 84W. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 120 nm E of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover the Caribbean west of this feature. Mainly moderate SE winds are elsewhere E of this feature. Over the next 24 hours convection will continue over the central Caribbean as the low slowly moves NE toward Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep moisture is pulled NE over the region due to an upper trough to the W. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are possible during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the special features section for details regarding the complex pair of low pressures over the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover the W Atlc to the west of these features. A 1020 mb high is centered near 29N42W. Farther east, a surface trough extends into our area of discussion near 31N26W to 27N30W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N between 21W and 24W. Over the next 24 hours the special feature complex system will move NE with ongoing convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto