000 AXNT20 KNHC 151746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of lower pressure is noted across the SW North Atlc region anchored by a pair of 1008 mb lows analyzed along a stationary front. The dominant 1008 mb low is centered near 28N63W with the front extending NE to 32N58W...and SW to the other 1008 mb low near 25N69W. To the SW...a surface trough extends SW to eastern Cuba near 20N76W and into low pressure across the western Caribbean Sea. The area of low pressure is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough extending from 34N72W to a broad base over the Florida Straits near 23N82W. Scattered showers and tstms continue across a large area surrounding the stationary front from 20N-32N between 52W-74W. As the northeastern most low pressure area deepens during the next 12 to 24 hours...near gale to gale force S to SW winds are forecast to increase by this evening generally N of 28N E of the front to 52W. This wind field is expected to persist through late Thursday night and decrease into strong to near gale conditions by Friday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N20W to 09N30W to 06N45W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-06N between the Prime Meridian and 07W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 14W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as an upper level trough lies over the SW North Atlc and Florida peninsula to a base over the Yucatan Channel region. Mostly stable conditions are occurring at the surface as a ridge axis extends from the Mid-Atlc coast across the SE CONUS to the SW Gulf and east-central Mexico near 22N99W. Skies are mostly clear with the exception of a few possible isolated showers within 120 nm N of a surface trough analyzed from 19N92W to 24N97W. Otherwise... gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are forecast through Friday. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Saturday into Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of lower pressure across the basin continues to be focused on a 1007 mb low centered S of Jamaica near 16N78W. A surface trough extends S-SW from the low to near 10N81W and supports scattered showers and strong tstms from 07N-16N between 73W-87W...including portions of southern Nicaragua...Costa Rica...and Panama. Another area of similar convection is occurring across the central Caribbean and Hispaniola near between 68W-74W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted across the NW Caribbean waters to the NW of the low...while trade wind flow E of the low will continue to be disrupted as outside of convection... gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. The low is expected to slowly drift eastward and then remain nearly stationary S-SW of Hispaniola early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms are expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep moisture advects NE over the region due to an upper trough to the NW over the SW North Atlc...Cuba...and NW Caribbean Sea. Convection will likely be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the special features section above highlighting the broad area of low pressure analyzed across much of the SW North Atlc...northwestern portions are under the influence of a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N63W SW to 29N70W becoming stationary to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W. Isolated showers are within 75 nm either side of the front while the stronger convection to the E remains associated with the Special Feature. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N43W. Finally...while mostly tranquil conditions are noted across the eastern Atlc...weakening surface troughing extending from a 1006 mb low centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 39N26W is supporting possible isolated showers N of 28N between 20W-32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN