000 AXNT20 KNHC 151140 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 31N58W 28N61W 25N68W, across the southeasternmost Bahamas, to SE Cuba. The 24-hour forecast, from 15/0600 UTC, consists of the following: a surface trough from 21N74W to 27N61.5W, to a 1000 mb low pressure center that is near 32N55.5W. Expect S to SW gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet over forecast waters to the N of 28N between 51W and the surface trough. Precipitation: scattered strong from 21N to 24N between 65W and 68W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 27N between 56W and 60W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 55W and 77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 08N26W 05N43W, to 05N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 180 nm on either side of line from 03N along the Prime Meridian, to 05N16W, 07N33W, 09N50W. An upper level trough passes through 32N25W to 24N30W to 15N43W, to 06N48W and 01N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 13N between 45W and 53W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between Africa and 60W, and from 20N to 25N between 20W and 26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire area. An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW Bahamas, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the W central Gulf of Mexico, to the western sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 17N74W to 16N83W, into the Gulf of Honduras and southern Belize. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 20N between 70W and 80W, and covering the southern half of Nicaragua into the northernmost sections of Costa Rica. isolated moderate covers the rest of the area that is from 70W westward, except N of 19N W of 80W. scattered to numerous strong is in NW Venezuela, on top of Lake Maracaibo. An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia that is near 12N73W, across Hispaniola, beyond 32N52W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough is moving through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ...HISPANIOLA... Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist across Hispaniola during the next few days. Deep moisture is going to be pulled NE across the area due to an upper level trough to the west. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the greatest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible during this time. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a trough. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 30N74W 27N79W and 26N80W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers from 27N to 32N between 70W and 76W. A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 36N28W, about 35 nm to the WSW of Ponta Delgada in the Azores. A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 36N28W, to 32N25W to 26N30W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N northward between 30W and 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT