000 AXNT20 KNHC 142335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 35N29W, about 200 nm to the SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends S from the low center to 30N28W to 25N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm east of the low, and within 180 nm east of the trough axis N of 30N. This system has a medium chance to become a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days before upper- level winds become unfavorable. Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N21W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 12W and 33W, and from 06N to 12N between 45W and 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Dry air and subsidence covers much of the Gulf basin this evening as a surface ridge axis extends from high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the basin, except moderate to fresh over the SE Gulf. Over the next 24 hours winds over the eastern Gulf will increase to fresh to strong as the area of high pressure builds southward toward the SE United States. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of surface troughs extend over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba near 21N77W to 18N81W, and from 17N83W to 16N88W. The combination of these surface troughs and an upper trough over the region supports numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 120 nm SE of the surface troughs. A 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 11N77W with a surface trough extending from the low to near 15N80W. Scattered moderate convection covers much of the SW Caribbean S of 17N between 72W and 82W. Fresh NE winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean to the north of the surface troughs. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are S of these troughs and west of about 70W. Moderate easterly trades are E of 70W. Over the next 24 hours the troughs will merge with the low as the low drifts slowly NNE. Convection will continue over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the low. ...HISPANIOLA... Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the area the next couple of days as deep moisture is pulled NE across the area due to an upper trough to the west. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life- threatening mud slides are also possible during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly moving cold front extends from 31N72W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N67W to 23N75W. This trough is interacting with an upper trough to the west to produce widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms within 450 nm E of the surface trough axis. A 1020 mb high is centered near 30N48W. A special feature low is north of our eastern portion of the area of discussion. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A surface trough extends from 24N28W to 16N30W. This trough is void of convection. Over the next 24 hours a pair of low pressure centers will develop along the western Atlantic surface trough, with increasing winds and seas spreading NE with the lows. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto