000 AXNT20 KNHC 141722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1222 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 34.5N29W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends S from the low center to 30N30W to 25N35W. Scattered moderate convection is just S of the Azores from 34N-37N between 25W-28W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the low. The low center is supported aloft by an upper level low center near 35N29W. This system has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable. Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin. This system has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N19W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central Florida due to the tail-end of quasi-stationary front near Melbourne. More scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida E of 83W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche. 10-20 kt NE to E surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to surface ridging. In the upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect over the next 48 hours for surface ridging to build over the Gulf with scattered showers persisting over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the W Caribbean from 16N88W to 17N83W to include the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A surface trough extends from E Cuba near 22N77W to 18N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of this trough. Further S, a 1007 mb low is along the coast of Colombia near 11N77W. Numerous strong convection is from 10N-14N between 76W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N-15N between 74W-83W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection. An upper level high is centered over N Colombia near 10N76W. Expect additional convection over the central and SW Caribbean over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is presently over Haiti, and scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic; mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect convection to spread over all of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to Melbourne Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of the front. A prefrontal front extends from 30N70W to the central Bahamas near 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 62W-73W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N49W. A 1010 mb low is over the E Atlantic S of the Azores. See above. In addition a surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 24N28W to 16N30W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the far W Atlantic supporting the front. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N29W with a trough axis extending SW to 20N40W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough axis to the coast of W Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa