000 AXNT20 KNHC 132337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low is centered near 32N32W and is supported aloft by a vigorous middle to upper level low near 32N31W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring near the center from 30N-33N between 28W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring farther NE in association with warm and cold fronts impacting the Azores this evening from 33N-39N between 25W-31W. This low pressure area has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days as it moves to the NE. Regardless of subtropical development...fresh to strong cyclonic winds are expected across the Azores through Thursday. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N17W to 06N23W to 07N40W to 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between 14W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends over the Gulf basin this evening from over northern Florida SW to a base over the SW waters near 20N94W. Middle to upper level divergence E of the trough axis is supporting isolated showers generally across the SE Gulf waters S of 25N E of 88W...including the southern Florida peninsula and Florida Straits. Elsewhere across the basin...high pressure anchored across the Great Lakes region is generating moderate to fresh N-NE winds. The current pressure gradient is expected to relax somewhat by Wednesday with decreasing winds into gentle to moderate breeze levels and gentle southerly return flow re- establishing itself across the NW waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level divergence prevails over much of the western Caribbean this evening generating a broad area of scattered showers and widely scattered tstms W of 75W...including the eastern Yucatan peninsula and Belize...and portions of Nicaragua...Costa Rica...and Panama. Enhancing this ongoing convection is the monsoon trough axis along 10N and a 1006 mb low centered near 10N77W with a surface trough extending N-NW from the low to the south-central adjacent coastal waters of Cuba near 21N80W. Outside the area of active convection...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday. Global models indicate a broad and stretched out area of surface low pressure developing from the waters NE of Cuba to Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean Tuesday night into Wednesday quickly moving E-NE and merging with a frontal boundary in the SW North Atlc Wednesday night into Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms continue across the island this evening as the region remains within west-southwesterly flow aloft. Becoming a more favorable environment aloft through Wednesday...low-level moisture convergence continues to be maximized across the region within E-SE trades. This overall pattern will persist through Thursday with convection expected to increase during the next 24 to 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough extends from over the Carolinas SW to over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc with moisture and cloudiness advecting northeastward out of the Caribbean Sea. An overall divergent environment aloft is supporting a large area of scattered to occasional numerous showers and widely scattered tstms from 20N-32N between 66W-80W. Otherwise...farther east...a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 32N49W continues to provide mostly tranquil conditions between 40W-60W. Finally...the special features section above describes the gradually development of a 1010 mb low centered near 32N32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN