000 AXNT20 KNHC 131746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N17W to 06N40W to the coast of South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 21W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south Florida, and the Straits of Florida, partially due to residual moisture from a dissipated front. Radar imagery also shows scattered showers over S Texas and NE Mexico from 24N-28N between 95W-102W. More scattered showers are over the SW Bay of Campeche. 10-20 kt NE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf, except over the SE Gulf and S Florida. Upper level diffluence is also over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Expect over the next 48 hours for surface ridging to build over the Gulf with scattered showers persisting over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the W Caribbean from 21N79W to 12N80W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over most of the NW Caribbean N of 15N between 74W-88W. Further S, a 1007 mb low is along the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the low. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection. An upper level high is centered over Colombia near 07N73W. Expect additional convection over the central and SW Caribbean over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect showers to transition to convection over the next 24 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life- threatening mud slides are also possible over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to 25N64W. This trough is now void of convection. Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-23N between 72W-78W. A surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 23N26W through the Cape Verde Islands to 13N21W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. A 1013 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N33W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N33W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low and within 60 nm of the trough. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly northeastward. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the far W Atlantic. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N32W with a trough axis extending SW to 22N45W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough axis to the coast of W Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa