000 AXNT20 KNHC 131119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N17W to 06N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 04N-11N between 20W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends across the E CONUS SSW to a base over the SW Gulf supporting isolated showers in the NE basin N of 26N. Southerly diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers across the Yucatan Channel, the E Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE winds E of 90W, including the aforementioned areas being affected by convection. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are elsewhere. Surface ridging will dominate across the basin the next three days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad low pressure prevails across the western Caribbean underneath a middle level low and southerly upper level diffluent flow. This atmospheric scenario supports a surface trough along 20N79W to 12N80W and scattered heavy showers and tstms elsewhere W of 74W. Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers across the eastern half of Hispaniola. A middle level ridge and dry air aloft provide stability and generally fair weather to the eastern half of the Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong winds in the NW Caribbean N of 14N W of 75W. A broad low pressure will develop in the SW basin later today and will persist beyond Wednesday, thus supporting the continuation of showers in the western Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 74W will persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers across the eastern half of Hispaniola and cloudiness with possible isolated showers elsewhere. This overall pattern will persist through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Middle to upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in the approaches of the Windward Passage and isolated showers across the southern Bahamas. In the NE basin, a 1013 mb low is centered near 30N34W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some additional development, and the system could become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days while it moves slowly northeastward. There is a low chance of cyclogenesis within the next 48 hours. Lastly, a surface trough extends from 23N26W to the Cape Verde Islands supporting showers there and northward from 15N-30N between 21W-33W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos