000 AXNT20 KNHC 110955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 455 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa to 11N15W then extends SW to E Atlc waters near 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N19W to 08N40W to 07N58W. Isolated moderate convection and tstms are from 04N-10N E of 34W and from 09N-15N between 30W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure has established across the E CONUS anchored by a 1040 mb high near the Great Lakes. The ridge extends S covering most of the Gulf waters, except W of 95W where the remnants of a stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough extends from 27N97W to 23N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Isolated showers are occurring within 105 nm either side of the boundary. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressure over the SW N Atlc and the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong NE winds E of 89W, including the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, water vapor imagery indicate broad upper troughing over the basin along with relatively dry air aloft, which is maintaining generally fair weather conditions. No significant changes expected basin-wide through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level low extending from N of Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean continue to support a surface trough that extends from E Cuba to W Jamaica coastal waters to a 1007 mb low near 14N80W to 11N80W. Diffluence between the middle level low and a ridge in the E Caribbean supports scattered heavy showers and tstms from the low center to 20N between 74W-81W, from 11N-16N between 70W- 74W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are across the Yucatan Channel, the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Generally, fair weather is elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong winds in the Lee of Cuba and within 120 nm off the S coast of Jamaica. These winds will expand SW across much of the NW Caribbean through Sunday. This synoptic pattern will be slow to modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next week. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W will persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across the Island being supported by a broad area of low pressure across the western half of the Caribbean and middle level diffluent flow. The shower activity is forecast to continue through Monday, increasing during the afternoon hours due in part to daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level trough over the W Atlc continue to support a cold front N of the area as well as a pre-frontal surface trough analyzed from 30N72W to 29N76W to 29N79W. A second trough is across the southern Bahamas near 21N73W to 28N69W. Scattered showers and tstms are S of 27N between 65W-77W. Similar convection is N of 28N between 63W-68W associated with a surface trough N of the area. In the central Atlc, an upper level low support scattered showers and tstms from 18N-23N between 43W-51W. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high centered NE of the Azores Islands. The cold front will enter SW N Atlc waters today and then will stall while weakening through Sunday. Another cold front will enter this region Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos