000 AXNT20 KNHC 102314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N19W to 09N25W to 10N37W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-09N between 06W-12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 21W-27W...and from 10N-14N between 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates broad troughing over the basin this evening within relatively dry air aloft. The trough axis extends from over the Florida peninsula SW to a base over southern Mexico near the Chivela Pass. While the stronger middle to upper level dynamics remain in the SW North Atlc...a lingering stationary front meanders from the central Florida peninsula near 27N81W to 25N90W and into a weak 1016 mb low. The front continues S-SE from the low to the southern Mexico coast near 19N95W. As a stable environment is noted aloft...low-level moisture and possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front and generally W of 95W...including interior portions of eastern Mexico. Overall moderate to fresh NE winds prevail with the exception of N-NW winds W of the low pressure center and front extending southward. The front is forecast to gradually weaken and become diffuse through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the Caribbean this evening focused on a 1007 mb low centered near 15N79W in the western waters. A surface trough extends N-NE from the low to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Water vapor imagery indicates the surface low and troughing is supported aloft by mid-level energy stretching from east of Jamaica near 18N76W to the offshore waters of Nicaragua near 14N82W. In addition...a favorable divergent environment remains over the central Caribbean...including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. As a result...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring primarily between 68W-79W...however a few isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the NW Caribbean and across Panama and Costa Rica generally S of 10N. This synoptic pattern will be slow to modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next week. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W will persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island this evening as the region remains in a favorable middle to upper level divergent environment within generally southwesterly flow aloft. Upper level troughing is expected to persist to the NW over the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through the weekend with persistent convection expected across the island...adjacent coastal waters...and much of the central Caribbean Sea. Potential hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are possible...especially if stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and instability through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N71W SW to the Florida coast near 28N80W where it becomes stationary into the Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to the SE of the front from the SE Bahamas near 23N73W to 28N70W. While only a few isolated showers are possible in association with the cold front...low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough and a favorable divergent environment aloft are generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-28N between 64W-76W. Additional convection is occurring from 28N-34N between 59W-66W. To the east...another surface trough extends from 19N50W to 29N49W supported aloft by an upper level low centered near 23N48W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted primarily E of the surface trough axis from 19N-27N between 42W-49W. Elsewhere...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1039 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 44N19W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN