000 AXNT20 KNHC 101718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1217 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 11N19W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly east of 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a stationary front across central Florida to 27N83W to 25N89W to a 1014 mb low near 24N96W to 18N95W. Isolated showers are noted along the front and near the low. A surface trough extends north from the low to 28N97W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds prevail south of the frontal boundary and low, while fresh to strong northeast winds are noted north and west of the features. Expect for the front to gradually weaken through the next 24 hours. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected on Saturday across much of the basin. High pressure will build across the southeast CONUS over the weekend and introduce a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Gulf, causing northeast winds to increase across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula until early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure covers much of the basin, anchored by a 1008 mb low centered south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A surface trough curves northeast from the low to east Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted between 70W-78W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the west, another surface trough extends over the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 20N between 84W- 88W. Satellite- derived wind data show gentle to moderate northeast winds west of the surface trough in the central Caribbean while fresh to occasionally strong southeast winds prevail east of the trough. This broad area of lower pressure is expected to persist and slowly move west through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Surface troughing extends west of the island to a low pressure south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A diffluent flow aloft in this area supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting mainly the western portion of the island. This activity will likely persist during the next 48 hours and maintain the threat of localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides, especially if stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N73W to 28N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N68W to 24N71W with scattered showers affecting mainly the southern Bahamas. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Another surface trough extends from 29N48W to 19N48W with scattered showers prevailing along and within 100 nm east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA