000 AXNT20 KNHC 101105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 605 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the African coast near 12N16W to 09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 09N17W to 05N29W to 07N39W to French Guiana on the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 11W and 26W and from 04N to 06N between 41W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough extending SW from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche is supporting a cold front which crosses the Gulf from near Tampa Florida at 27.5N83W to 24.5N94W. The front then continues as a nearly stationary front to low pres 1016 mb centered near 24.5N96W to 22N94.5W to 18.5N95W. Convergent upper-level winds over the Gulf are suppressing deep convection in the vicinity of the front. Cloudiness, patchy rain and drizzle are the result to the lee of the front. Gentle to moderate NNE winds prevail south of the frontal boundary, while fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted north and west of the front. Expect for the front to move slowly SE and gradually weaken through Sat. The front should stretch from southern Florida into the southwest Gulf waters Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected on Saturday across much of the basin with the exception of N to NW winds within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico south of 22N. High pressure will build across the southeast CONUS over the weekend and introduce a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Gulf, causing NE winds to increase across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula until early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure covers much of the basin, anchored by a 1007 mb low centered S of Jamaica near 15N77W. A surface trough curves NNE from low pres on the coast of Colombia near 12N75W to the low S of Jamaica, then through the Windward Passage. Another trough curves NW from the low S of Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel. Water vapor imagery indicates the surface low and trough are supported aloft by a mid to upper-level low centered near 16N81W. Low- level convergence primarily east of the surface trough and upper level divergence east of the upper- level low are combining to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 20N between 70W and 77W. Satellite-derived wind data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds west of the surface trough while fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds prevail east of the trough. This broad area of lower pressure across the basin is expected to persist and slowly lift N through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Surface troughing extends from the Windward Passage to low pres centered Caribbean S of Jamaica near 15N77W. The surface trough is supported aloft by an upper-level low centered farther SW near 16N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the island. This activity will likely persist during the next 48 hours and maintain the threat of localized flooding and life- threatening mud slides, especially if stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends SW from 32N78W to just north of Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N81W, but there is no significant convection associated with this boundary. A surface trough extending SSW from the E coast of Florida near 28N81W to 24N81.5W is supporting scattered showers over the Straits of Florida between 80W and 84W. To the east, the surface trough continuing NNE from the Caribbean through the Windward Passage to 29N67W is providing the focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong convection N of the Dominican Republic and NW of Puerto Rico in an area bounded by 19N67W to 22N67W to 24N70W to 20N74W to 10N67W. Upper-level troughing over the central Atlantic has induced a surface trough extending from 19N48W to 30N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 17N to 25N between 43W and 48W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1041 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 45N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy