000 AXNT20 KNHC 100518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the African coast near 12N16W to 08N19W to 07N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 07N24W to 07N38W to French Guiana on the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 14W and 25W and from 04N to 06N between 41W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough progressing eastward over the NW Gulf waters supporting a cold front extending SW from the Florida Big Bend region near 28.5N82.5W to 25.5N90W to low pres 1016 mb centered near 24.5N94.5W. The front then curves SW over the Bay of Campeche to near Veracruz on the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Convergent upper-level winds over the Gulf are suppressing deep convection in the vicinity of the front. Cloudiness, patchy rain and drizzle are occurring to the lee of the front. A weak surface trough possessing no significant deep convection extends from 23N92W to 20N93W. Gentle to moderate NNE winds prevail south of the frontal boundary, while fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted north of the front. Expect for the front to move slowly SE and gradually weaken through Sat. The front should stretch from southern Florida into the southwest Gulf waters Sat evening. Fresh to occasional strong northeast winds are expected on Saturday across much of the basin with the exception of northwest winds within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico south of 25N. High pressure will build across the southeast CONUS over the weekend, causing NE winds to increase across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula until early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure covers much of the basin, anchored by a 1007 mb low centered S of Jamaica near 15N77W. A surface trough extends from the low to the Windward Passage. Water vapor imagery indicates the surface low and trough are supported aloft by a mid to upper-level trough with an axis extending from over the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba to a base near 12N83W. Low- level convergence primarily east of the surface trough and upper level divergence east of the upper-level feature are combining to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N to 20N between 69W and 76W. To the south, the monsoon trough extends E along 10N to 79W, but all the significant convection associated with this feature lies over the Pacific Ocean. Satellite- derived wind data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds west of the surface trough while fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds prevail east of the trough. This broad area of lower pressure across the basin is expected to persist and slowly lift N through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Surface troughing extends from the Windward Passage over the SW Caribbean. The surface trough is supported aloft by an upper- level trough with an axis extending from over the southern Bahamas southwestward to a base near 12N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring almost all of the island. This activity will likely persist during the next 48 hours with the potential for localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides, especially if stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends SW from 32N77W to the coast of Florida near 29.5N81W, but there is no significant convection associated with this boundary. A surface trough extending SSW from the E coast of Florida near 27N80W to 24N81W is supporting scattered showers over the Straits of Florida between 80W and 83W. To the east, another surface trough extending from 29N64W to 22N70W is providing the focus for scattered moderate convection N of the Dominican Republic from 20N to 22N between 67W and 70W. An upper level low across the central Atlantic is reflected at the surface as a trough extending from 32N48W to 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of a line from 18N44W to 23N45W to 26N45W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1041 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 45N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy