000 AXNT20 KNHC 091721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 47.0N 45.5W at 09/1500 UTC or about 310 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland and about 1285 nm SW of Reykjavik Iceland moving NE at 35 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 46N- 49N between 40W-44W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to 08N24W to 10N28W then resumes near 10N34W to 07N40W to 06N56W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 05W-14W...and from 03N-07N between 33W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the lower Mississippi River valley and NW Gulf waters this afternoon supporting a cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend region near 30N83W into a weak 1016 mb low centered near 26N96W then southward to the Mexico coast near 21N97W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front and across the SW Gulf in the vicinity of a surface trough analyzed from 24N95W to 20N92W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail S of the frontal boundary... while fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted N of the front and N-NW winds are noted W of the front. The front will be slow to move southeastward through tomorrow and likely stall from the southern Florida peninsula into the SW Gulf waters near 18N94W. Fresh to occasional strong NE winds are expected on Saturday across much of the basin with the exception of N-NW winds within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico S of 25N. High pressure will build in through the weekend across the SE CONUS...increasing E-NE winds across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the Caribbean this afternoon focused on a 1007 mb low centered near 12N76W off the coast of northern Colombia. A surface trough extending N-NE from the low to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Water vapor imagery indicates the surface low and troughing is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending from over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba to a base near 16N81W. Low-level convergence primarily E of the surface trough and upper level divergence E of the upper level feature is generating scattered showers and tstms from 13N-18N between 63W- 76W. In addition...scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 74W-84W. Otherwise...W of the surface trough...gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail while moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail E of the surface trough. This overall broad area of lower pressure across the basin is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Surface troughing extends from the Windward Passage region S-SW into the SW Caribbean Sea supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis extending from over the SE Bahamas southwestward to a base near 16N81W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized E of the surface troughing with scattered showers and tstms occurring across a large area from 13N-24N between 63W-74W. This convection will likely persist for the next 48 hours with the potential for localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides...especially if stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a couple locations of mid-level shortwave trough energy extending from over the mid-Atlc coast SW to over Alabama and finally the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N73W to the Florida coast near Jacksonville and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A weak pre-frontal surface trough extends from the cold front near 30N79W to near Port Everglades with isolated showers and tstms occurring N of 28N W of 72W. Farther east...another surface trough extends from 23N67W to 28N64W within the southern periphery of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N63W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N-24N between 62W-72W. Across the central Atlc...an upper level trough axis extends along 47W supporting a surface trough extending from 22N51W to 26N48W to 31N48W with widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring N of 25N between 43W-46W. To the NE of this convection...a surface ridge holds anchored by a strong 1042 mb high centered N-NE of the Azores near 45N22W. The influence of the ridging covers much of the eastern Atlc N of 15N with NE winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN