000 AXNT20 KNHC 090519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 42.5N 48.3W at 09/0300 UTC, or about 325 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving north at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 42N to 44N between 46W and 49W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of W Africa near 08N18W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 06N27W to 08N35W to 04N44W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 13N between 20W and 31W, and from 05N to 08N between 30W and 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As cold front crosses the northern Gulf from near Apalachicola in the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N95W to the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico near 25N97W. No significant deep convection is noted along the front. Otherwise, deep layer ridging prevailing over the remainder of the basin is promoting fair weather. Satellite-derived wind data show gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the Gulf south of the front while fresh to strong northerly winds prevail west of the front. Expect for the front in 24 hours to extend from near Tampa Florida to near 24N96W in the NW Gulf to near Veracruz Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Haiti near 19N72W to the coast of N Colombia near 11N74.5W, then inland over Colombia to 07N73W. An upper-level low is centered over E Cuba near 20N77W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is enhancing the convection over the central Caribbean as well. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed from 12N to 15N between 70W and 74W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are evident over the Caribbean to the east of the trough while moderate NE winds cover the remainder of the basin W of the trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found over and S of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 15N to 20N between 65W and 72W. Farther S, the E Pacific monsoon trough crosses Costa Rica and Panama to end in NW Colombia near 08N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present along the coasts of Panama and Colombia from 09N to 11N between 74W and 80W. Expect in 24 hours for a low to form within the surface trough off the coast of N Colombia near 14N77W as the synoptic environment continues to support deep convection. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends S from Haiti to the coast of northern Colombia. In addition upper level diffluence remains in place over the island. Deep convection is affecting all of Hispaniola, especially the Dominican Republic. Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist over the island for the next 48 hours with the potential of localized flooding and life- threatening mud slides, especially of the stronger convection over the adjacent waters to the south moves north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas near 27N77W to just N of eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Isolated showers are noted over the central and southern Bahamas. A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N61W. Another surface trough passes over the tropical Atlantic from 26N48W to 18N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 24N to 30N between 45W and 47W. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered over E Cuba is producing divergent upper-level winds as far E as 60W. Isolated moderate convection is taking place over and N of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 20N to 22N between 63W and 70W. Expect the cold front presently over the Gulf of Mexico to reach the W Atlantic on Thu and the northern Bahamas on Fri. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to drift NE to the S Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy