000 AXNT20 KNHC 090001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 40.9N 48.6W at 08/2100 UTC, or about 400 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving north at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 41N-42N between 47W-49W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 10N14W to 10N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 10N27W to 07N40W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 20W-32W, and from 04N-06N between 45W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. No significant convection is noted along the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Weak surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area south of the front while northerly winds prevail north of the front. Expect for the front in 24 hours to extend from N Florida to the NW Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Haiti near 19N72W to the coast of N Colombia near 12.5N74.5W to 07N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm E of the trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over E Cuba and Jamaica. Further S, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low is over E Cuba near 20N77W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is enhancing the convection over the central Caribbean. Upper level diffluence E of the low is also producing scattered showers over the NE Caribbean to include Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Expect in 24 hours for a low to form off the coast of N Colombia near 14N77W with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends S from Haiti. In addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered moderate convection is over all of S Hispaniola, and scattered showers are elsewhere. Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist over the island for the next 48 hours with the potential of localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 28N76W to 21N75W. Isolated showers are noted over the central and southern Bahamas. A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N63W. Another surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 26N48W to 19N52W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered over E Cuba is producing diffluent flow as far E as 60W. Isolated moderate convection is N of the Leeward Islands from 19N-23N between 60W-70W. Another upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 21N47W enhancing scattered showers. Expect the cold front presently over the Gulf of Mexico to reach the W Atlantic on Thu. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to drift to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours, with continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa