000 AXNT20 KNHC 081103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 37.1N 48.4W at 08/0900 UTC, or about 615 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 39N to 42N between 44W and 51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 06N19W to 05N30W to 05N46W to the coast of S America near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N between 16W and 30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 07N between 10W and 18W and from 03N to 07N between 33W and 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered S of Louisiana near 28N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds generally prevail over the Gulf accompanied by fair weather. The only exception is along the lower Texas coast where moderate SSE return flow is observed just to the S of the cold front nearing the Texas Coastal Bend. An upper level ridge extending over the Gulf of Mexico from near Tampico Mexico to near Tampa Florida is maintaining strong subsidence over the Gulf of Mexico S of 28N. Expect the cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts this morning, but shower coverage will be limited. Fresh to strong NNE winds will be generated west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and to the Florida Big Bend by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends N from between Haiti and Jamaica near 17N75W to the eastern tip of Cuba. The upper-level trough that is inducing this surface trough extends NE from Honduras to and upper-level low centered over eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Divergent upper-level winds are combining with the surface trough to trigger scattered moderate and isolated strong convection S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico within 120 nm either side of a line from 17N66W to 15N74W. Farther S, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over the SW Caribbean along 10N from Costa Rica through low pres centered over NW Colombia near 10N74W to end near 10N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Moderate trade winds prevail over the Caribbean courtesy of high pressure over the western Atlc and low pres over northern S America. Expect more showers to continue over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends N from between far SW Haiti and Jamaica near 17N75W through the Turks and Caicos Islands to the northern Bahamas. Upper-level divergence and low-level convergence are maintaining scattered moderate convection over the island. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen over the coastal waters. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue over the island during the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends NNW from the eastern tip of Cuba near 20.5N75W to just E of the northern Bahamas near 28N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 20N to 23N between 66W and 72W. Of note in the upper levels, the upper-level low that anchors the trough over the Caribbean is centered over E Cuba near 21N76W. The low is producing divergent flow as far E as 60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the Virgin Islands and well N of the Leeward Islands from 20N to 22N between 60W and 66W. A 1018 mb high hovers over the W Atlantic near 31N65W. Another surface trough supported by an upper-level low centered near 23N38W extends over the tropical Atlantic from 19N42W to 13N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 18N to 20N between 38W and 41W. Expect the cold front currently arriving on the Texas coast to reach the W Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper-level low to slowly lift NE over the S Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy