000 AXNT20 KNHC 072333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 33.8N 48.9W at 07/2100 UTC, or about 803 nm E of Bermuda, or about 1140 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-37N between 46W-50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 09N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 09N25W to 09N32W to 06N42W to S America near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 20W-25W, and from 04N-07N between 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high with fair weather. Scattered showers are, however, over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the Mexico near 21N105W. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. Expect a cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed morning with showers. Fresh to strong NNE winds will lie west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and the central Florida Peninsula through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Further S, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low is over E Cuba near 20N76W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is producing scattered showers over the E Caribbean E of 74W to include Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the N Bahamas to SW Haiti. In addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti. Scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic. Expect showers and thunderstorms over the island for the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 27N74W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. Isolated moderate convection is from 20N-24N between 68W-75W. A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. Another surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 20N39W to 15N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-20N between 37W-40W. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered over E Cuba is producing diffluent flow as far E as 60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the Leeward Islands from 19N-24N between 60W-64W. Another upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 22N41W enhancing convection. A third upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near 30N16W producing scattered showers from 28N-32N between 10W-18W. Expect the cold front presently over central Texas to reach the W Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to drift to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours, with continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa