000 AXNT20 KNHC 071803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 32.4N 49.3W at 07/1500 UTC or about 785 nm E of Bermuda and about 1140 nm W of the Azores moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the storm center from 33N to 38N between 43W and 51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal, Africa near 12N16W to 08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 08N25W to 06N40W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N E of 32W and from 03N to 09N W of 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico just S of Alabama and Mississippi near 28N88W, which continues to provide light to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and light to moderate SSE winds W of 90W. Middle to upper level ridging is over the basin along with very dry air, which support clear skies. The center of high pressure will move to the NW Gulf waters through Wednesday morning where it will dissipate ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast. Fresh to strong NNE winds will lie west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and the central Florida Peninsula through Thu night. Scattered to isolated showers will accompany the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low centered over E Cuba extends S to a base over the SW Caribbean while middle to upper level ridging covers the remainder basin. Between these two features, diffluent flow along with shallow moisture support scattered showers and tstms between 63W and 75W, including Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Isolated showers are across E Cuba being supported by a surface trough extending S from the SW N Atlc. This shower activity will continue in the central and north-central region of the basin through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to the middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean. The EPAC monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to NW Colombia and support scattered showers S of 11N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through early Wed morning when a low develops over the central basin tightening slightly the pressure gradient. ...HISPANIOLA... Diffluent flow between a middle level low centered over E Cuba and ridging to the E supports scattered showers and tstms between 63W and 75W, including the Mona Passage and Hispaniola. This shower activity will continue across the Island and adjacent waters through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to the middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Rina. A pair of surface troughs are in the SW N Atlc, one off the Florida coast that lacks convection and another across the Bahamas to E Cuba along 74W. The easternmost trough support isolated showers in the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. E of the trough, the diffluent flow in the Caribbean extends N supporting scattered showers and tstms S of 25N between 60W and 70W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1038 mb high centered N of the Azores Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos