000 AXNT20 KNHC 070556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 30.4N 49.9W at 07/0300 UTC or about 770 nm E of Bermuda and about 1220 nm WSW of the Azores moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 30N to 32N between 47W and 50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the African coast near 12N15W to 10N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 10N18W to 08N27W to 06N40W to the coast of South America at 06N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 180 nm either side of a line from 18N17W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 40W and 57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the Gulf of Mexico just SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi near 28.5N88.5W. The high is maintaining a benign weather pattern over the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds generally prevail over the Gulf, with the exception that moderate return flow from the SSE has set up N of 21N and W of 95W ahead of the next frontal boundary which is currently over central Texas. In the upper levels, an upper-level ridge crosses the Gulf from the bay of campeche to the Florida Big Bend. Strong subsidence associated with this feature remains over the entire Gulf. A cold front is still expected to slowly move SE from the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening through Thu morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough crosses the NW Caribbean from NE Honduras near 15N84W to S of Cuba near 19N82W. This trough has no significant convection associated with it. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Farther S, the monsoon trough extends over the far SW Caribbean from the Eastern Pacific along the coast of Panama to NW Colombia near 09N76W. Isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough are confined to land over Panama. Low pressure over northern South America and high pressure over the western Atlc is maintaining light to moderate cyclonic wind flow over the basin. An upper-level trough extends NE over the NW Caribbean from NE Honduras to NE Cuba. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean during the next 48 hours as the monsoon trough remains in place. Convection over the eastern Caribbean will shift eastward as the upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean slowly progresses eastward. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola. Upper level diffluence is also aiding convection over the island. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola should slowly taper off during the next 48 hours and the upper- level trough over the NW Caribbean moves eastward slowly and weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the special features section for more information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rina. Otherwise, a surface trough extends over the western Atlc from the Dominican Republic near 19N71W to N of the central Bahamas near 25N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found mainly N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in an area bounded by 19N64W to 20N73W to 23N71W to 19N64W. An upper-level trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 17N48W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place from 23N to 27N between 46W and 47W. Otherwise, a 1037 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 32N34W is maintaining fair weather over the basin E of 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy