000 AXNT20 KNHC 070001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 29.9N 50.0W at 06/2100 UTC or about 773 nm E of Bermuda and about 1238 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 47W- 50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to 09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 06N40W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-11N between 18W-28W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N-11N between 16W-40W, and from 03N-08N between 40W-59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also near Trinidad from 08N-12N between 59W-65W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high with fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W Gulf near 25N94W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect a cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 20N82W to N Nicaragua near 14N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Further S, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis from central Cuba to NE Honduras. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis producing scattered showers over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola. In addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered moderate convection is over NW Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over the remainder of the island. Expect little change over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See special features for information about Tropical Depression Nineteen. Otherwise, in the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N74W to the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola near 19N71W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A 1017 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 25N58W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic with axis from 31N71W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis producing isolated moderate convection from 20N-26N between 60W-70W. Another upper level trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 44W-47W. Expect the W Atlantic upper level trough to remain quasi- stationary over the next 24 hours, while the central Atlantic upper level trough moves E. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa