000 AXNT20 KNHC 061755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 29.5N 50.4W at 06/1500 UTC or about 758 nm E of Bermuda and about 1268 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-32N between 46W- 51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N19W to 08N30W to 06N45W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N E of 44W and from 01N-11N between 48W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails in the SE CONUS extending SW across the Gulf of Mexico where it is anchored by a 1021 mb high located over the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W. The ridge continue to provide light to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and light to moderate SSE winds W of 90W, except for locally fresh winds off the coast of Texas. The ridge will remain nearly stationary across the NNE Gulf waters through Wednesday evening when a cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast. Fresh to strong NNE winds will lie west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and the central Florida Peninsula through Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the SW N Atlc extends SSW across portions of the NW and SW Caribbean. A ridge aloft to the E of the trough generates a diffluent environment that supports scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage and southward to 16N, including Jamaica ESE adjacent waters. Isolated showers extend across E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. This shower activity will continue in this region through Thu morning as the short-wave trough is forecast to stall before dissipating. The EPAC monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to NW Colombia and support isolated showers S of 14N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through early Thu morning. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle to upper level short-wave trough extends from the SW N Atlc to portions of the NW Caribbean. A ridge aloft to the E of the trough generates a diffluent environment that supports scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage and isolated showers across Hispaniola. This shower activity will continue through Thu morning as the short-wave trough is forecast to stall before dissipating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See special features for information about Tropical Depression Nineteen. Otherwise, in the SW N Atlc, a middle to upper level short-wave trough with axis extending SSW to a base over the SW Caribbean supports a surface trough across the Bahamas from 28N73W to 20N75W. Diffluence aloft associated with the trough is generating an area of widely scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 27N between 60W and 76W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered NE of the Azores Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos