000 AXNT20 KNHC 052319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A mid to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W supports a 1012 mb low centered near 29N52W. The well-defined low pressure system is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily N of 26N between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while the low moves northward. Conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday when the low will be moving over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N20W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ east of 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1020 mb surface high centered near 30N88W. This system covers the entire basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. The ridge is forecast remain nearly stationary across the northern Gulf waters through late Wednesday when a cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 20N78W to 16N84W. Scattered showers are noted between 78W-85W. To the south, the EPAC's monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-82W supporting scattered moderate convection is this area. Mid-level diffluent flow supports isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Expect for showers to continue across the western Caribbean. A similar weather pattern is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring due to patches of shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters. A mid to upper level trough will move over the island from the west during the next 48 hours, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details about the surface low located in the central Atlantic. In the western portion of the basin, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near 27N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 31N75W. Isolated showers are noted near the low and trough. To the southeast of the low/trough, a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers between 66W-77W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered northeast of the Azores. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA