000 AXNT20 KNHC 051741 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1129 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Corrected to add Special Features Section... Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W supports a 1012 mb low near 29N51W and an associated trough that extends from the low to 23N50W. The well-defined low pressure system is located about 695 nm east-southeast of Bermuda where it is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms primarily N of 23N between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while the low moves northward to north-northeastward. Conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday when the low will be moving over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N20W to 06N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N E of 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N86W continues to cover the entire basin and provides for light to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W, except for moderate winds in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate SSE winds W of 90W. The ridge is forecast remain nearly stationary across the NNE Gulf waters through Wednesday night when a cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough associated with a 1013 mb low located within 90 nm off the coast of E Honduras. This area of low pressure prevails underneath a region of middle to upper level diffluence, which along with shallow moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of Jamaica from 14N-21N between 78W-82W and within 90 nm off the coast of E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The EPAC monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to a 1011 mb low off the NW coast of Colombia near 10N75W and generate scattered showers and tstms to the SW Caribbean S of 12N W of 75W. Middle level diffluent flow between a small ridge N of Puerto Rico and a broad ridge over the central tropical Atlc support scattered showers and tstms across most of the Leeward Islands and isolated showers elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Patches of shallow moisture move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, thus supporting isolated showers there. The low is forecast to dissipate by Monday morning, however showers will continue in the NW basin. No major changes expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring this afternoon due to patches of shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters. However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the development of deep convection through Monday night. A middle to upper level trough will then move over the Island from the W, resulting in the development of showers and tstms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature in the basin is an area of low pressure located in the northern-central Atlc forecast waters. See the special features section for further details. A middle to upper level trough between 70W and 80W with upper level base over northern Central America continue to support a 1015 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near 27N74W with associated trough extending from 31N74W to the low to 24N74W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered NE of the Azores Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos