000 AXNT20 KNHC 051005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 06N30W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 10W-44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N87W continues to prevail across the entire basin this morning. Latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow throughout. The ridge is expected to move little and remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters through Wednesday. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western portions through Wednesday when the next front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Wednesday late afternoon into the early evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 13N82W into a 1010 mb low near 16N82W to 20N81W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 77W- 85W. The monsoon trough axis also extends from northern Colombia along 10N to Costa Rica with widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 11N between 74W-84W. Farther east...shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E of 70W...including the Mona Passage...Puerto Rico...and across many of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers linger across the island this morning...however overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next few days with west-southwesterly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades at the surface. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave trough with axis extending from 31N74W to 23N80W to a base over Central America near 15N90W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough extending N-NW to 32N79W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the trough axis and middle to upper level divergence is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms mostly E of the trough axis from 25N-32N between 69W-77W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 27N51W. This shortwave supports a 1014 mb low centered near 28N52W with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 22N-34N between 44W-53W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 43N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN