000 AXNT20 KNHC 050444 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 05N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N25W to 06N38W to 07N49W. A surface trough is analyzed at the western extent of the ITCZ axis from 08N46W to 17N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 09W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 20W- 43W...and from 10N-17N between 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 30N87W continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow throughout. The ridge is expected to move little and remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters through Wednesday. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western portions through Wednesday when the next front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Wednesday late afternoon into the early evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from northern Nicaragua into a 1010 mb low near 18N84W to 21N82W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from 12N-21N between 77W-86W. The monsoon trough axis also extends from northern Colombia along 11N/12N to southern Nicaragua with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 12N between 76W-86W. Farther east...shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E of 70W...including the Mona Passage...Puerto Rico...and across many of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...however overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next few days with west-southwesterly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades at the surface. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave trough with axis extending from 32N75W to 23N81W to a base over Guatemala near 15N90W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough extending N-NW to 31N78W and S-SE to 23N74W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the trough axis from 22N-30N between 70W-78W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough extends from 28N54W to 21N46W. This troughing continues to support a 1012 mb low centered near 28N51W with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 25N-33N between 46W-53W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered N-NE of the Azores near 44N23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN