000 AXNT20 KNHC 042346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N22W to 05N51W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from 15N46W to 07N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 20W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 29N88W prevails across the entire basin providing gentle to moderate anticyclonic across the area. The center of high pressure is forecast to stall through Tuesday night then it will dissipate ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas by early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin is a surface trough west of Jamaica and extending to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough and between 78W-85W. Dry/stable air prevails elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather. Isolated passing showers are possible in Puerto Rico and the Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trades are prevailing and expected to persist through early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air subsidence will hinder the development of convection through Monday night when a middle to upper-level trough will move over the island from the west, thus supporting lifting of warm moist air and the development of showers and tstms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic east of the Bahamas near 26N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 31N77W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough/low. To the east, another 1013 mb surface low is located near 27N52W. A surface trough extends from 30N51W to the low to 23N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed between 46W-54W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA