000 AXNT20 KNHC 040441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 10N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N23W to 05N30W to 06N41W. A surface trough is analyzed at the western extent of the ITCZ axis from 05N43W to 14N39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 03W- 23W... and from 02N-07N between 36W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N86W continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow throughout. The ridge is expected to move little through Sunday morning and then shift gradually northeastward as moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western portions early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage near 29N75W to 13N77W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 75W-85W...including interior portions of Central America. Farther east...another surface trough extends from the central Atlc to east of the Windward Islands near 12N61W. Shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E of 61W...and S of 11N. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...however overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next few days with westerly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave trough with axis extending from 26N70W to a broad base near 29N77W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough that cuts along 75W from 24N to 30N. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring well E of the low center from 26N-32N between 67W-72W. Otherwise the remainder of the SW North Atlc is experiencing rather tranquil conditions as dry zonal flow aloft prevails W of 65W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough extends along 54W from a base near 21N northward to 34N. This troughing has induced an area of lower pressure between 50W-62W featuring a 1010 mb low centered near 23N53W and another weakening 1012 mb low centered near 33N57W. A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb low SW to E of the Windward Islands near 12N61W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring primarily E of the upper level trough axis in an area of maximum middle to upper level divergence from 19N-36N between 45W-54W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 47N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN