000 AXNT20 KNHC 032336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 736 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N17W to 09N40W, then continues west of a surface trough at 09N43W to 10N48W. Another surface trough extends south of ITCZ from 05N12W to 03N29W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 02N-10N and west of 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over southern Alabama near 32N85W, extending its ridge across the northeast Gulf waters. To the west, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Expect surface return flow to persist over the Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A line of surface confluence extends from eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage to northern Nicaragua. In this area, scattered moderate convection are noted north of 15N between 74W-84W. Further south, a surface trough is near the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 14N82W to 11N82W with no significant convection. Strong subsidence prevails over the east and southern portions of the basin. A surface trough will enter the eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours enhancing convection mostly around the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers prevail across the Windward Passage affecting the western portion of the island while fair weather dominates the remainder of the island. A similar scenario is expected through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the west Atlantic from 32N74W to 24N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the trough mainly north of 29N. Further east, a 1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N56W. A surface trough extends from 23N59W to the low to 31N53W. An area of scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm to the east of the trough/low mainly north of 22N. Another surface trough is east of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 22N55W to 10N60W. Scattered showers are noted south of 14N between 57W-61W. Expect for the troughs across the basin to move west through the next 24 hours enhancing convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA