000 AXNT20 KNHC 022341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 10N20W, where The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins and extends to 08N30W to 09N35W to 07N50W to 11N56W. A surface trough extends from 13N33W to 04N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located from 03N to 09N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 01N to 10N between 34W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from a 1023 mb High over central North Carolina across the eastern Florida panhandle to 25N88W to the central Bay of Campeche. This ridge supports mostly clear skies and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the entire Gulf basin early this evening. Moderate to strong winds aloft cover the entire Gulf and will become northerly over the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate easterly winds aloft covers the southern half of the Caribbean basin with water vapor imagery indicating strong subsidence. A weakening surface trough continues to move W across the far NW Caribbean with the axis along 87W from the 16N to 20N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough. A middle/upper level trough is forecast to move into the NW Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Light to moderate westerly flow aloft covers the island and surrounding waters. The southern end of a surface trough over the Atlantic along 71W extends into central Hispaniola and supports broken to overcast low and middle clouds with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western half of the Atlantic, the dominant feature is a middle/upper level trough with the axis extending through 32N54W to 25N57W to 15N62W. To the east, a relatively sharp middle/upper level ridge has its axis along 47W north of 15N. A broad middle/upper level trough is located over the eastern Atlantic north of 18N east of 37W. A well-defined surface trough is located along 71W/72W from 20N to 33N with scattered showers within 60-90 nm either side of it. A 1014 mb low is positioned near 27N55W with an associated surface trough from 32N53W to 24N56W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 18N to beyond 32N between 45W to 52W. A surface trough is located from 21N54W to 14N57W. A cold front over the eastern Atlantic is located through 32N17W to 29N24W to beyond 32N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB