000 AXNT20 KNHC 021030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N18W to 07N28W, then continues W of a surface trough at 07N32W to 06N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 04N-07N between 12W-16W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-10N between 26W-36W due to a surface trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface ridge covers the far NW Atlantic waters extending SW to N Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt return flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Mostly fair weather is over the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow prevails with strong subsidence. Expect surface return flow to persist over the Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, continues to move W across the NW basin with axis extending from 21N82W to Honduras near 15N86W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another trough is along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 15N82W to 09N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of this trough. The tail end of a third trough reaches central Hispaniola from the Atlantic supporting scattered showers. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over E Cuba near 20N75W. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean and the S Caribbean. Expect more showers over the W Caribbean and Central America over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over the island due to the surface trough. Expect showers for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, the remnants of a front, is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 26N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Further S, a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 24N70W to central Hispaniola near 19N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1013 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N53W. A surface trough extends S form the low to 23N55W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N49W. Upper level diffluence is SE of this low. Expect the two western surface troughs to drift W over the next 24 hours with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa