000 AXNT20 KNHC 012358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 09N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 06N26W and then continues along 06N38W to 04N48W. A surface trough races west across the ITCZ with axis extending from 10N24W to 02N26W, generating scattered heavy showers and tstms from 02N-11N between 21W-30W. Fresh to locally strong winds are within 105 nm E of the trough axis. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are elsewhere from 02N-10N between 30W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface ridge covers the far NW Atlc waters extending SW across Florida into the Gulf where it provides light to gentle return flow in the eastern half of the basin and moderate SE flow W of 90W. Moderate winds are also in the Straits of Florida while locally fresh S winds are noted in the NW Gulf. Fair weather prevails basin-wide being supported by very dry aloft. No major changes expected through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, continues to move W across the NW basin with axis extending from 21N81W to Honduras near 15N85W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are within 90 nm W of the trough. A second trough is in the SW basin along Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama adjacent waters from 15N82W to 08N82W. Isolated showers are within 75 nm W of the trough axis. The tail of a dissipating stationary front N of the area extends to the Windward Passage supporting isolated showers. The tail of a surface trough ahead of that front reaches central Hispaniola, thus supporting isolated showers mainly along the southern half of the island. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the vicinity of the trough in the NW Caribbean while moderate trades are elsewhere. Showers will continue through Thu night in the NW Caribbean and through Thu morning across Hispaniola. Little change is expected elsewhere through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... The tail of a dissipating stationary front N of the area extends to the Windward Passage supporting isolated showers. The tail of a surface trough ahead of that front reaches central Hispaniola, thus supporting isolated showers mainly along the southern half of the island. Showers will continue through Thu morning across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N67W SW to the Windward Passage generating isolated showers within 165 nm either side of the boundary. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 26N67W to central Hispaniola. In the central Atlc, a 1013 mb low is centered near 28N51W with associated trough extending from 31N51W to the low to 23N53W. Surface ridging covers the remainder eastern Atlc, however a middle to upper level diffluent environment support scattered showers and tstms from 14N-30N between 30W-50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos